“So where is the stock market going this year Charles?”
- I don’t know.
“How come you don’t know? Aren’t you suppose to be one of the top finance student at your University?”
- What do you mean by top? I just have good grades but that doesn’t mean I know where the market will go this year or next year… actually no one can!
“How come no one can?’
- Do you know anyone who actually can predict where the market is going on a constant basis?
“Well I thought someone could because of all the news on TV, etc… I mean those stock specialist sounds so smart no?”
- Well they have to sound smart, otherwise no pay check! I could give you tons of reason why the market will go up or down by the end of the year.
“No but what do you think?”
- I still don’t know…
“I am confuse”
- PERFECT! Now you understand the market!
“What do you mean?”
- You are CONFUSE! That’s the hole point… the market is simply a weird non-sense confusing thing !
“I still don’t get it…”
- good.
——-
That famous conversation, I have it with my dad, family, and some school friends a couple of time. Everyone has to realize that no one can predict the market and where it will be by the end of year or next year or in 3-4 years. There are 2 types of Stock Market Specialist. There are some who don’t know where the market will go and those who haven’t realize yet that they don’t know where the market will go. Simple no? Not really because it goes against human nature for not knowing something. Humans seemed to be program to find trends where there are actually none.
But why is the market really confusing? I could go in deep details but I won’t. Simply ask yourself “What is the market? or Who is the market?” Us, the population of the world is forming the market and since humans often act in manners that are so unpredictable, how can we predict the market? Get it?
However, there’s something for sure I can say about “predicting” the market, if you actually can call this a market prediction. In the past, Bull markets are followed by Bears but Bull periods tend to last longer than Bears… there you go! Now everyone understands the stock market? Simple no?
This is good. There are so many people forecasting the stock market, but in reality there is no way to know what is going to happen!